Will Lucia Simonelli be the Democratic nominee for PA-01?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will Lucia Simonelli be the Democratic nominee for PA-01?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $583 open interest, making the 10¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $583 open interest, making the 10¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 1010.9% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic sign of low-confidence pricing in thin markets, while the wide 8¢ spread reflects genuine uncertainty about fair value. With 566 days until expiry and a modest downward price movement from 7¢ to 6¢ over the past week, this appears to be a speculative long-shot bet with minimal market depth rather than a liquid prediction.
Resolution rules
If Lucia Simonelli wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 PA-01 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPAPRIMARY-01D26-LSIM yes 100