Will above -50000 jobs be added in April 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 93% probability that Will above -50000 jobs be added in April 2026?. This contract trades at 93¢ on Kalshi, closing May 8, 2026. This illiquid micro-market pricing a 88% probability of job gains exceeding -50,000 in April 2026 shows extreme yield asymmetry, with the No side offering a nonsensical 14,084.8% implied yield versus 261.9% for Yes, indicating the $5 open interest is too thin to support reliable pricing.
Analysis
This illiquid micro-market pricing a 88% probability of job gains exceeding -50,000 in April 2026 shows extreme yield asymmetry, with the No side offering a nonsensical 14,084.8% implied yield versus 261.9% for Yes, indicating the $5 open interest is too thin to support reliable pricing. The market has declined 3 cents over seven days and closes in just 19 days with a 9-cent spread, creating significant cliff risk (index of 7) as the April employment data release approaches. The unusual negative threshold (-50,000) effectively means the market resolves Yes unless job losses exceed 50,000, making this a bet against severe labor market deterioration rather than typical job growth expectations.
Resolution rules
If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above -50000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of April 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPAYROLLS-26APR-T-50000 yes 100