Will above -75000 jobs be added in April 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 98% probability that Will above -75000 jobs be added in April 2026?. This contract trades at 98¢ on Kalshi, closing May 8, 2026. The market is pricing in a 98% probability that April 2026 job additions will exceed -75,000 (i.e., job losses will be less severe than -75,000), yet the "No" side offers an absurd 36,174% implied yield, suggesting extreme mispricing or a liquidity trap on the losing side with only $11.05 open interest.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a 98% probability that April 2026 job additions will exceed -75,000 (i.e., job losses will be less severe than -75,000), yet the "No" side offers an absurd 36,174% implied yield, suggesting extreme mispricing or a liquidity trap on the losing side with only $11.05 open interest. With just 19 days to expiry and minimal 24-hour volume of $13.05, this appears to be a thin, illiquid market where the Yes position has already won decisively, making it unsuitable for meaningful trading despite the tight 2¢ spread.
Resolution rules
If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above -75000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of April 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPAYROLLS-26APR-T-75000 yes 100