Will above 200000 jobs be added in April 2026?

This market is pricing in only a 5% probability of job additions exceeding 200,000 in April 2026, which appears pessimistic given historical norms where monthly payroll gains typically range from 150,000-300,000. The sharp price decline from 2¢ to 1¢ over seven days suggests deteriorating sentiment, though the $0 24-hour volume and modest $3,136 open interest indicate minimal liquidity and conviction behind this bearish positioning. With the market closing May 8, 2026 (roughly one month post-resolution), the 1¢ bid-ask spread is reasonable for such low-probability pricing, but traders should be cautious given the thin trading activity.

Resolution rules

If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 200000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of April 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Regime

Trade