Who will win the next Nigerian presidential election?
Prediction markets currently give a 55% probability that Who will win the next Nigerian presidential election?. This contract trades at 55¢ on Kalshi, closing February 28, 2028. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a wide 8¢ spread and $1.1k open interest, suggesting minimal trading activity and potentially stale pricing.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a wide 8¢ spread and $1.1k open interest, suggesting minimal trading activity and potentially stale pricing. The 60% implied yield on the Yes side appears inflated relative to the neutral regime and flat 7-day price action (holding at 47¢), indicating the market may be mispriced or reflecting low confidence in the current 53¢ quote. With 683 days to expiry and a realized volatility of 167%, this contract carries significant uncertainty around Nigeria's 2027 election outcome, but the lack of price discovery makes it difficult to assess whether the current odds fairly reflect Tinubu's reelection prospects.
Resolution rules
If the winner of the next Nigerian presidential election in 2027 is Bola Tinubu, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPRESNIGERIA-27-BTIN yes 100