Will Ron DeSantis be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Ron DeSantis be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2028. DeSantis's Republican nomination odds have collapsed to just 4¢, implying a 936% annualized yield for contrarian bettors willing to hold through the 2028 general election—an extraordinarily high return that reflects extreme undervaluation risk or near-certainty among market participants that he won't secure the nomination.
Analysis
DeSantis's Republican nomination odds have collapsed to just 4¢, implying a 936% annualized yield for contrarian bettors willing to hold through the 2028 general election—an extraordinarily high return that reflects extreme undervaluation risk or near-certainty among market participants that he won't secure the nomination. The $1.26M open interest vastly outweighs the modest $6.2K daily volume, suggesting this is a relatively illiquid position market dominated by a few large holders betting against DeSantis. With 936 days until expiry and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 24, there's meaningful time for political developments to shift probabilities, though the recent uptick from 3¢ to 4¢ suggests minimal momentum reversal so far.
Resolution rules
If Ron DeSantis wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPRESNOMR-28-RDS yes 100