Will Donald J. Trump be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 15% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
15%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$35K
5 contracts
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
792 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Tucker Carlson be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party
Will Tucker Carlson be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?: Tucker Carlson
KXPRESNOMR-28-TCAR
Cluster 2
Will J.D. Vance be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party
Will J.D. Vance be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?: J.D. Vance
KXPRESNOMR-28-JDV
Cluster 3
Will Donald J. Trump Jr. be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party
Cluster 4
Will Ron DeSantis be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party
Will Ron DeSantis be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?: Ron DeSantis
KXPRESNOMR-28-RDS
Cluster 5
Will Marco Rubio be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party
Will Marco Rubio be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?: Marco Rubio
KXPRESNOMR-28-MR
Analysis
This probability indicates the market's assessment that Trump has a 15% chance of becoming the Republican presidential nominee. As of August 2026, this relatively low probability reflects market perception that other candidates are viewed as more likely to secure the nomination. The current level would move based on Trump's standing in primary polls, his legal situation, and endorsements from party establishment figures. The Republican National Convention in 2028 represents the key event that will definitively resolve this outcome, though primary elections and early state contests beginning in late 2027 will provide significant clarity on the trajectory of the nomination race.
- ›Trump's standing in early Republican primary polling relative to leading alternatives like Vance (43¢), Rubio (22¢), and DeSantis (5¢)
- ›Status of ongoing legal proceedings and their potential impact on his eligibility or political viability
- ›Support from Republican establishment figures and current party leadership direction
- ›Performance in early primary contests scheduled for late 2027 and early 2028
- ›Turnout and vote share trends in states that hold the earliest nominating contests
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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