Will Donald J. Trump be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 20% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
20%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$79K
4 contracts
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
842 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will J.D. Vance be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party
Will J.D. Vance be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?: J.D. Vance
KXPRESNOMR-28-JDV
Cluster 2
Will Marco Rubio be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party
Will Marco Rubio be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?: Marco Rubio
KXPRESNOMR-28-MR
Cluster 3
Will Donald J. Trump Jr. be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party
Cluster 4
Will Ron DeSantis be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party
Will Ron DeSantis be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?: Ron DeSantis
KXPRESNOMR-28-RDS
Analysis
This probability reflects the current market assessment that Donald J. Trump has a 14% chance of becoming the Republican Party's presidential nominee. The low probability suggests markets are pricing in significant headwinds for a Trump nomination, likely reflecting his current legal situation, age considerations, and potential party preferences for alternative candidates. Key factors that could move this probability include changes in his legal status, shifts in Republican primary endorsements, or major statements from party leadership. The outcome will ultimately be determined by delegate counts and formal nomination voting at the Republican National Convention, with the nomination process timeline extending through summer 2026.
- ›Trump's current legal exposure and any major developments in ongoing cases that could affect his electability calculus
- ›Republican primary results and delegate commitments, which would indicate party preference among voters
- ›Public statements from major Republican figures regarding their preferred nominee and whether they actively support or oppose Trump
- ›Historical precedent regarding candidates facing legal challenges seeking major party nominations in modern primary contests
- ›Convention delegate allocation rules and whether any rule changes are proposed that could affect nomination outcomes
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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