Will Haley Stevens finish 2nd in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary?
Prediction markets currently give a 26% probability that Will Haley Stevens finish 2nd in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary?. This contract trades at 26¢ on Kalshi, closing August 4, 2027. This illiquid market shows a stark asymmetry in risk-adjusted returns, with Yes holders facing a 171.2% implied yield versus 34.6% for No, suggesting significant underpricing of Stevens' second-place odds relative to the binary outcome structure.
Analysis
This illiquid market shows a stark asymmetry in risk-adjusted returns, with Yes holders facing a 171.2% implied yield versus 34.6% for No, suggesting significant underpricing of Stevens' second-place odds relative to the binary outcome structure. The $3.92 open interest and 8¢ spread indicate minimal market depth, making the 32¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate. With 475 days to expiry and a low cliff risk index of 2, there's ample time for the market to develop, though the current regime-neutral score and flat recent price action suggest limited conviction from participants.
Resolution rules
If Haley Stevens finishes in 2nd place in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPRIMARYPLACE-SENATEMID26-2-HSTE yes 100