What is the current probability for "Will the Federal Reserve cut rates before 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 68¢ (68% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will the Federal Reserve cut rates before 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 67.5% and 304.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will the Federal Reserve cut rates before 2027?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will the Federal Reserve cut rates before 2027?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 68% probability that Will the Federal Reserve cut rates before 2027?. This contract trades at 68¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing a 62% probability of at least one Fed rate cut by end-2026, but the asymmetric implied yields (97.9% for Yes vs.

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68¢

Bid/Ask 68/68¢·Spread 0¢·Vol $1,439.78·OI $49,904.91·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining

KXRATECUT-26DEC31

7-day price108 snapshots · 51 regime

71¢68¢ current

Apr 853¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

The market is pricing a 62% probability of at least one Fed rate cut by end-2026, but the asymmetric implied yields (97.9% for Yes vs. 202.7% for No) suggest significant tail risk skew favoring the No side, indicating traders expect either no cuts or a sharp repricing event. Volume is modest at $2,722 over 24 hours against $46k open interest, and the recent 6-cent price decline over seven days (65¢ to 59¢) reflects growing skepticism about near-term cuts despite 259 days to expiry. The elevated realized volatility of 122% and cliff risk index of 1 warrant caution on position sizing given the binary nature and potential for abrupt Fed communication shifts.

Resolution rules

If the Federal Reserve cuts its target federal funds rate range at least once between February 26, 2026 and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 67.5%

IY (No) 304.8%

Adj IY 305%

CRI 2

RV 208%

VR 2.44

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	67.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	304.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	305%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	208%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.44	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.9/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
LAS	0.00	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

0¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 6:51:57 PM

Observability highEvent type data_release

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 6:38:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXRATECUT-26DEC31 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →