Will Mandatory funding for ICE or CBP lasting at least 1 year be in the next reconciliation bill?
Prediction markets currently give a 79% probability that Will Mandatory funding for ICE or CBP lasting at least 1 year be in the next reconciliation bill?. This contract trades at 79¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extremely thin liquidity with just $300 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 71¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading.
Analysis
This market shows extremely thin liquidity with just $300 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 71¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading. The massive 298.7% implied yield on the "No" side is a red flag suggesting severe mispricing or illiquidity rather than genuine market conviction, especially given the neutral regime and modest 2-point cliff risk index. With 260 days to resolution and only a 5¢ spread, this appears to be a speculative position with minimal price discovery rather than an actively traded prediction.
Resolution rules
If the next reconciliation bill to become law includes mandatory funding for ICE or CBP lasting at least 1 year before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXRECBILL-27-ICE1 yes 100