Will Mandatory funding for ICE or CBP lasting at least 3 years be in the next reconciliation bill?
Prediction markets currently give a 71% probability that Will Mandatory funding for ICE or CBP lasting at least 3 years be in the next reconciliation bill?. This contract trades at 71¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market has rallied sharply from 51¢ to 62¢ over seven days, suggesting recent positive developments for mandatory ICE/CBP funding inclusion in an upcoming reconciliation bill.
Analysis
The market has rallied sharply from 51¢ to 62¢ over seven days, suggesting recent positive developments for mandatory ICE/CBP funding inclusion in an upcoming reconciliation bill. The 229.4% implied yield on the "No" side is notably asymmetric compared to the 86.2% "Yes" yield, indicating the market prices in substantial tail risk despite the 64% baseline probability. With only $837 in open interest and a 7¢ spread on a 260-day runway, liquidity is thin, making the recent price movement potentially significant but vulnerable to reversal on modest volume.
Resolution rules
If the next reconciliation bill to become law includes mandatory funding for ICE or CBP lasting at least 3 years before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXRECBILL-27-ICE3 yes 100