What is the current probability for "Will the Republican Party win 193-197 seats in the 120th Congress?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 12¢ (12% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on February 1, 2027. 286 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will the Republican Party win 193-197 seats in the 120th Congress?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1033.5% and 15.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Will the Republican Party win 193-197 seats in the 120th Congress?

Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will the Republican Party win 193-197 seats in the 120th Congress?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing February 1, 2027. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 15% probability priced in for Republicans capturing exactly 193-197 seats, yet the Yes contract displays an extraordinarily high implied yield of 840.6% compared to just 18.8% for No, suggesting severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns.

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12¢

Bid/Ask 11/12¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $1,001·OI $35,074.64·Closes Feb 1, 2027·286d remaining

KXRHOUSESEATS-27-195

7-day price29 snapshots · 20 regime

15¢11¢ current

Apr 910¢Apr 19

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 15% probability priced in for Republicans capturing exactly 193-197 seats, yet the Yes contract displays an extraordinarily high implied yield of 840.6% compared to just 18.8% for No, suggesting severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns. The $0 24-hour volume against $36k open interest and tight 1¢ spread indicates this contract is largely illiquid and may not reflect true market consensus, with the 7-day price movement from 12¢ to 13¢ potentially reflecting thin-book dynamics rather than fundamental shifts. With 291 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 7, traders should be cautious about the reliability of this price as a predictive signal given the lack of active trading.

Resolution rules

If the Republican Party has between 193-197 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1033.5%

IY (No) 15.8%

Adj IY 517%

CRI 8

EE 6.000

Overround -0.1%

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1033.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	15.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	517%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	8	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
EE	6.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.396

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:36:55 PM

SF edge 7.0¢ yesObservability lowEvent type political

Edges (1)

NO +7¢thesis — DOGE cut federal workforce aggressively. Now those roles are needed for wartime

Has thesisIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXRHOUSESEATS-27-195 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Event Overround →