Will the Republican Party win 198-202 seats in the 120th Congress?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will the Republican Party win 198-202 seats in the 120th Congress?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing February 1, 2027. This market is pricing an extremely narrow Republican seat range at just 11¢, implying only an 11% probability of Republicans holding exactly 198-202 seats in the 120th Congress—a notably tight band given historical seat distributions typically span 50+ seats.
Analysis
This market is pricing an extremely narrow Republican seat range at just 11¢, implying only an 11% probability of Republicans holding exactly 198-202 seats in the 120th Congress—a notably tight band given historical seat distributions typically span 50+ seats. The astronomical 1016% implied yield on the Yes side combined with minimal 24-hour volume of $21 against $39.6k open interest suggests thin liquidity and potential mispricing, particularly since the No side offers only a 15.5% yield, creating an unusual asymmetry that warrants skepticism about the Yes probability. The recent 2-cent price decline over seven days and moderate cliff risk index of 8 indicate some uncertainty, though with 291 days to resolution, this market may be undervaluing the possibility of a narrow Republican majority given current polling dynamics.
Resolution rules
If the Republican Party has between 198-202 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXRHOUSESEATS-27-200 yes 100