Will the Republican Party win 213-217 seats in the 120th Congress?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will the Republican Party win 213-217 seats in the 120th Congress?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing February 1, 2027. This market is pricing an extremely narrow Republican seat range at just 5¢, implying only a 5% probability despite Republicans currently holding 222 seats—well above the 213-217 band.
Analysis
This market is pricing an extremely narrow Republican seat range at just 5¢, implying only a 5% probability despite Republicans currently holding 222 seats—well above the 213-217 band. The asymmetric 2386% implied yield on Yes contracts versus 6.6% on No suggests severe mispricing or reflects genuine conviction that Republicans will lose significant ground over the next 291 days, though the thin $270.57 daily volume and modest $33.6k open interest raise liquidity concerns. The 19 Cliff Risk Index and recent price movement from 4¢ to 5¢ indicate this is a volatile, illiquid contract where large positions could move prices substantially.
Resolution rules
If the Republican Party has between 213-217 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXRHOUSESEATS-27-215 yes 100