Will Jake Paul announce a run for an elected public office in 2026?
KXRUNBYMIDTERM-26NOV03-JPAU · closes Nov 3, 2026 · 203 days remaining
Price
Last
13¢
Bid
4¢
Ask
13¢
Spread
9¢
24h Volume
$0
Open Interest
$551
Cross-venue · polymarket
Same outcome trades on Will Jake Paul announce a run for public office in 2026? · match confidence 0.74 · close-time delta 1377h
Counterpart price
14¢
This price
13¢
Spread (this − cp)
-1¢
Counterpart IY
862.5%
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 4323.8% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 7.5% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 24 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | -0.5% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 2.25 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | — | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | — | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | — | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 0% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
2 indicator snapshots · 3 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
9¢
Computed
4/15/2026, 12:55:08 AM
About this market
If Jake Paul has announced they will run for an elected public office in the 2026 election after Issuance and before Nov 3, 2026, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXRUNBYMIDTERM-26NOV03-JPAU yes 100