Will Alex Pelbath be the Republican nominee for SC-01?
Prediction markets currently give a 23% probability that Will Alex Pelbath be the Republican nominee for SC-01?. This contract trades at 23¢ on Kalshi, closing June 9, 2027. The 261.6% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high relative to the 29.1% yield on No, suggesting either significant underpricing of Pelbath's nomination chances or substantial tail risk priced into the contract.
Analysis
The 261.6% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high relative to the 29.1% yield on No, suggesting either significant underpricing of Pelbath's nomination chances or substantial tail risk priced into the contract. With only $58 in 24-hour volume against $5,116 open interest and a 3¢ spread, liquidity is thin and the market may struggle to efficiently incorporate new information as we approach the June 2027 close. The recent price recovery from 23¢ to 25¢ over seven days combined with the neutral regime score suggests cautious optimism, though the 419-day timeframe leaves ample room for candidate dynamics to shift.
Resolution rules
If Alex Pelbath wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 SC-01 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSC01R-26-APEL yes 100