Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of The United States in United States v. Hemani
Prediction markets currently give a 19% probability that Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of The United States in United States v. Hemani. This contract trades at 19¢ on Kalshi, closing August 1, 2026. The market is pricing in a heavily underdog scenario for federal victory with just 17¢, implying the Supreme Court is more likely to strike down the marijuana-user firearm ban, though the extreme 2104% implied yield on the Yes side suggests significant uncertainty or potential mispricing given the case's constitutional complexity.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a heavily underdog scenario for federal victory with just 17¢, implying the Supreme Court is more likely to strike down the marijuana-user firearm ban, though the extreme 2104% implied yield on the Yes side suggests significant uncertainty or potential mispricing given the case's constitutional complexity. Volume is thin at $393 in 24 hours against $18k open interest, and the 549% realized volatility with a 3¢ spread indicates this is a speculative, illiquid market where prices could move sharply on case developments over the next 107 days. The neutral regime and modest 7-day price movement (13¢ to 14¢) suggest the market hasn't yet reacted to major news, making this a watch for upcoming oral arguments or related Second Amendment rulings that could trigger significant repricing.
Resolution rules
If the Supreme Court, in United States v. Hemani, rules that the federal government may continue to bar marijuana users from buying or possessing firearms under 18 U.S.C. § 922(g)(3), then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSCOTUSMARIJUANAGUN yes 100