Will Reilly Neill be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Montana?
Prediction markets currently give a 87% probability that Will Reilly Neill be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Montana?. This contract trades at 87¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and minimal open interest of $1,744.46, making the 81¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and minimal open interest of $1,744.46, making the 81¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The massive disparity in implied yields (45.5% for Yes vs. 727.7% for No) signals severe pricing inefficiency, likely driven by the thin liquidity and wide 4¢ spread. With over 200 days until expiry and a recent 4¢ price decline from 84¢, this appears to be a speculative position with limited market depth rather than an efficiently priced prediction.
Also on polymarket at 88¢(Δ -1¢)
Resolution rules
If Reilly Neill wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Senate Montana Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSENATEMTD-26-RNEI yes 100