Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will Reilly Neill be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 88¢ (88% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on June 2, 2026. 41 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will Reilly Neill be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 121.3% and 6521.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will Reilly Neill be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	121.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	6521.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	6521%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	7	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	91%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.82	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.7/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Will Reilly Neill be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana?

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