Will Conor Lamb be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Pennsylvania?
Prediction markets currently give a 31% probability that Will Conor Lamb be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Pennsylvania?. This contract trades at 31¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2029. The market is pricing Lamb at a modest 31% nomination probability with extremely thin liquidity ($401 open interest, $12.3 daily volume), making the 79.9% implied yield on the Yes side potentially misleading given execution risk.
Analysis
The market is pricing Lamb at a modest 31% nomination probability with extremely thin liquidity ($401 open interest, $12.3 daily volume), making the 79.9% implied yield on the Yes side potentially misleading given execution risk. The 5¢ spread is wide relative to the contract value, and the neutral regime score suggests limited directional conviction despite the long 1,301-day timeframe to the 2028 nomination process. Price stability over the past week (25¢ to 26¢) indicates this contract is largely inactive and may not reflect real-time shifts in Pennsylvania Democratic primary dynamics.
Resolution rules
If Conor Lamb wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2028 Class III Pennsylvania Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSENATEPAD-28-CLAM yes 100