Will Conor Lamb be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Pennsylvania
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 13% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
13%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
6 contracts
Closes
Nov 7, 2029
1213 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will John Fetterman be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Pennsylvania
Will John Fetterman be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Pennsylvania?: John Fetterman
KXSENATEPAD-28-JFET
Cluster 2
Will Brendan Boyle be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Pennsylvania
Will Brendan Boyle be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Pennsylvania?: Brendan Boyle
KXSENATEPAD-28-BBOY
Cluster 3
Will Chris Deluzio be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Pennsylvania
Will Chris Deluzio be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Pennsylvania?: Chris Deluzio
KXSENATEPAD-28-CDEL
Cluster 4
Will Conor Lamb be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Pennsylvania
Will Conor Lamb be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Pennsylvania?: Conor Lamb
KXSENATEPAD-28-CLAM
Cluster 5
Will Susan Wild be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Pennsylvania
Will Susan Wild be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Pennsylvania?: Susan Wild
KXSENATEPAD-28-SWIL
Cluster 6
Will Summer Lee be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Pennsylvania
Will Summer Lee be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Pennsylvania?: Summer Lee
KXSENATEPAD-28-SLEE
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that Conor Lamb will win the Democratic primary for Pennsylvania's 2026 Senate seat. At 15%, markets view him as a secondary contender rather than the frontrunner. The assessment likely reflects the competitive nature of Pennsylvania Democratic primaries, where multiple candidates typically emerge with substantial support. Key factors pushing this probability would include Lamb's performance in early polling, his fundraising relative to other candidates, and whether any higher-profile Democrats enter the race. The resolution of this market depends on the Democratic primary election results, which will occur during Pennsylvania's primary voting period in spring 2026. Upcoming candidate announcements and early primary polls over the next several months will significantly clarify whether Lamb can consolidate Democratic primary support.
- ›Lamb's current position in Pennsylvania Democratic primary polling compared to other declared or potential candidates as of May 2026
- ›Total fundraising by Lamb versus competing Democratic primary candidates through the pre-primary period
- ›Whether high-profile Pennsylvania Democrats (senators, governors, or other statewide officials) enter or decline to enter the Democratic primary
- ›Lamb's performance in head-to-head matchup polling against Republican general election opponents, which influences primary donor and voter enthusiasm
- ›Turnout and voting patterns in the 2026 Pennsylvania Democratic primary relative to historical precedent
What moved the line
- Jul 6Conor Lamb↓4pp16→12¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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