How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 98% probability that How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?. This contract trades at 98¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing in extremely high confidence (94%) that SpaceX will exceed 120 launches in 2026, translating to an average of over 2.3 per week.
Analysis
The market is pricing in extremely high confidence (94%) that SpaceX will exceed 120 launches in 2026, translating to an average of over 2.3 per week. The asymmetric yield profile—9.0% for Yes versus 2202.4% for No—reflects severe mispricing risk, with the No side offering outsized compensation for what would be a dramatic operational failure. With only $120 in 24-hour volume against $4,838 open interest and 260 days to expiry, liquidity is thin and the market may struggle to adjust if SpaceX faces production delays or supply chain disruptions.
Also on polymarket at 4¢(Δ +94¢)
Resolution rules
If SpaceX has more than 120 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-120 yes 100