What is the current probability for "How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 16¢ (16% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 255 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1050.6% and 19.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme mispricing with the Kalshi contract trading at 29¢ versus just 8¢ on Polymarket—a 262% spread that suggests significant arbitrage opportunity or venue-specific liquidity constraints.

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16¢

Bid/Ask 17/24¢·Spread 7¢·Vol $1,511.52·OI $14,026.77·Closes Jan 1, 2027·255d remaining

KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-180

7-day price622 snapshots · 28 regime

24¢18¢ current

Apr 811¢Apr 21

Analysis

2d ago

This market shows extreme mispricing with the Kalshi contract trading at 29¢ versus just 8¢ on Polymarket—a 262% spread that suggests significant arbitrage opportunity or venue-specific liquidity constraints. The 566% implied yield on Yes combined with extraordinarily high realized volatility (1513%) and a 6.18 vol ratio indicates the market is pricing in massive uncertainty around SpaceX's 2026 launch cadence, though the 29% probability seems pessimistic given SpaceX achieved 67 launches in 2024 and would need 180+ (roughly 3x current pace) for resolution. The thin $12.9k open interest and modest $1.3k daily volume suggest low conviction among traders, making the cross-venue gap potentially exploitable for sophisticated players.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 13¢(Δ +3¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.84IY 964.9%Close-time delta 39h

Resolution rules

If SpaceX has more than 180 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1050.6%

IY (No) 19.5%

Adj IY 1051%

CRI 7

RV 1754%

VR 6.86

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1050.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	19.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1051%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	7	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1754%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	6.86	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.8/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	1.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

7¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:12:20 PM

Observability mediumEvent type scientific

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-180 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →