How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 35% probability that How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?. This contract trades at 35¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The Yes side is pricing in only a 33% probability of SpaceX exceeding 170 launches in 2026, yet offers an extraordinary 313% implied yield, suggesting significant underpricing relative to SpaceX's demonstrated launch cadence and capacity expansion.
Analysis
The Yes side is pricing in only a 33% probability of SpaceX exceeding 170 launches in 2026, yet offers an extraordinary 313% implied yield, suggesting significant underpricing relative to SpaceX's demonstrated launch cadence and capacity expansion. The market has declined 5 cents over seven days to 31¢ despite thin liquidity ($9,152 open interest), and the extreme realized volatility of 1088% combined with a vol ratio of 5.98 indicates this contract is experiencing outsized price swings that may reflect uncertainty about SpaceX's operational constraints rather than fundamental reassessment. With 260 days to resolution and an information arrival rate of 3.8 signals per hour, traders should monitor SpaceX's actual 2026 launch schedule closely, as the current pricing appears disconnected from the company's stated ambitions of 140+ annual launches.
Resolution rules
If SpaceX has more than 170 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-170 yes 100