Above 170 · How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above
Above 170 is priced at 30¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 30¢ bid, 35¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 8 inside How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above.
Price history
30¢ current
+10¢Contract brief
If SpaceX has more than 170 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 170
Rank
#4 of 8
Leader
Above 120 97¢
Range
4¢-97¢
Family volume
$4K
Identifier
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-170
Jun 7, 2026, 4:08 PM UTC · 15m ago
Implied probability
Bid
30¢
Ask
35¢
Spread
5¢
24h volume
$2K
Family rank
#4 of 8
8 outcomes · How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$4K
Orderbook snapshot
30 / 35¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If SpaceX has more than 170 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-170
Event family
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$4K
Outcomes
8
Highest price
Above 120 97¢
Current share
46%
Above 120
kalshi · KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-120
Above 140
kalshi · KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-140
Above 160
kalshi · KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-160
Above 170
kalshi · KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-170
Above 180
kalshi · KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-180
Above 190
kalshi · KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-190
Above 200
kalshi · KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-200
Above 210
kalshi · KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-210
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
scientific
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.