How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market is pricing an extremely unlikely outcome at 11¢, implying SpaceX will exceed 190 launches in 2026—a threshold that would require roughly 3.7 launches per week and far exceed their historical cadence of around 70 annual launches.
Analysis
This market is pricing an extremely unlikely outcome at 11¢, implying SpaceX will exceed 190 launches in 2026—a threshold that would require roughly 3.7 launches per week and far exceed their historical cadence of around 70 annual launches. The astronomical 1266% implied yield on the Yes side combined with minimal 24-hour volume of $6.29 and a wide 5¢ spread suggests this is a speculative tail-risk contract with severe liquidity constraints rather than a genuine probability assessment. With 260 days to expiry and a realized volatility of 577%, this market exhibits extreme pricing inefficiency and should be approached cautiously given the cliff risk index of 9 and potential for sharp repricing if SpaceX announces major operational changes.
Resolution rules
If SpaceX has more than 190 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-190 yes 100