Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 10% and 19.99% on Jul 1, 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 68¢ (68% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on July 1, 2026. 70 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 10% and 19.99% on Jul 1, 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 255.3% and 1052.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 10% and 19.99% on Jul 1, 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	255.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1052.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	526%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
EE	17.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
Overround	0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 10% and 19.99% on Jul 1, 2026?

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Edges (1)

Trade

Related concepts

Related Prediction Market Questions