Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 10% and 19.99% on Jul 1, 2026
Leader sits at 83% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 9%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Between 10% and 19.99%
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
9¢
Below 10%
Spread
74pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$30
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
23 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the tariff rate on China imports be
Will the tariff rate on China imports be below 10% on Jul 1, 2026?: Below 10%
KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-5
Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 10% and 19.99% on Jul 1, 2026?: Between 10% and 19.99%
KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-14
Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 30% and 39.99% on Jul 1, 2026?: Between 30% and 39.99%
KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-34
Analysis
This probability indicates that markets currently assess a two-in-three chance that U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports will settle between 10% and 19.99% by July 1, 2026. The 64% price for the 10-19.99% band reflects expectations about ongoing trade negotiations and policy decisions. The probability level suggests meaningful uncertainty: markets are pricing in substantial probability for tariff rates outside this range—either lower (under 10%) or higher (20% or above). The main drivers include statements from U.S. trade officials regarding negotiation outcomes, actual tariff announcements or changes between now and early July, and broader trade relationship developments. The critical resolution point is the actual tariff rate announced or confirmed by July 1, 2026. Market participants are weighing recent policy signals against the possibility of significant changes in either direction during the next two months.
- ›Current effective tariff rates on Chinese imports and recent policy announcements from U.S. trade officials
- ›Public statements or proposals regarding tariff rate targets from government leadership between May and July 2026
- ›Any interim tariff changes or negotiations announced before the July 1 measurement date
- ›Market pricing of the three competing outcomes (below 10%, within 10-19.99%, and 20% or above) based on available information
- ›Geopolitical developments or trade dispute escalations that could trigger tariff policy shifts in either direction
What moved the line
- Jun 3Below 10%↓9pp22→13¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 3Between 10% and 19.99%↑6pp71→77¢ · Kalshi
- May 31Between 10% and 19.99%↑5pp66→71¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 4Between 10% and 19.99%↑4pp77→81¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 4Below 10%↓3pp13→10¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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