Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 20% and 29.99% on Jul 1, 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 14¢ (14% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on July 1, 2026. 70 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 20% and 29.99% on Jul 1, 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 3468.7% and 77.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 20% and 29.99% on Jul 1, 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3468.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	77.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1734%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	7	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
EE	14.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
Overround	0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 20% and 29.99% on Jul 1, 2026?

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