Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 40% and 49.99% on Jul 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 40% and 49.99% on Jul 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. This market displays extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and minimal open interest of $1,505, creating a highly unreliable price signal at 5¢.
Analysis
This market displays extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and minimal open interest of $1,505, creating a highly unreliable price signal at 5¢. The astronomical implied yield of 11,658% on the Yes side signals severe mispricing or reflects the market's extreme uncertainty about a 40-49.99% tariff band occurring within 75 days, though the neutral regime score suggests no clear directional bias. The 1¢ spread and flat 7-day price action indicate this contract is essentially dormant and should be approached with caution due to potential execution difficulties.
Resolution rules
If the general import tariff rate on imports from China into the United States on Jul 1, 2026 is between 40 to 49.99%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-44 yes 100