Will Trump issue any executive action on imposing tariffs specifically on foreign-made films, where the executive action must explicitly reference foreign-made films in its title, operative text, or fact sheet (not merely in an attached tariff schedule annex) during in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Will Trump issue any executive action on imposing tariffs specifically on foreign-made films, where the executive act.... This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $60 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 19¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $60 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 19¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate. The 865% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high and suggests either severe mispricing or that sophisticated traders view this outcome as extremely unlikely, though the narrow $0.05 spread indicates minimal market confidence in either direction. With 259 days to expiration and a highly specific resolution criterion requiring explicit film tariff language (not just schedule annexes), the low price appears justified given the niche nature of this policy outcome, though the illiquidity means any actual trading could move the price substantially.
Resolution rules
If the President of the United States has taken any executive action in 2026 imposing tariffs specifically on foreign-made films, where the executive action must explicitly reference foreign-made films in its title, operative text, or fact sheet (not merely in an attached tariff schedule annex) and set an effective date, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTARIFFSECTOR-27JAN01-FILM yes 100