Will Trump issue any executive action on imposing tariffs specifically on Canadian aircraft, where the executive action must explicitly reference Canadian aircraft in its title, operative text, or fact sheet (not merely in an attached tariff schedule annex) during in 2026
Leader sits at 39% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 34%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Critical minerals
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
34¢
Wind turbines
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
189 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Trump issue any executive action on imposing tariffs specifically
Will Trump issue any executive action on imposing tariffs specifically on Canadian aircraft, where the executive action must explicitly reference Canadian aircraft in its title, operative text, or fact sheet (not merely in an attached tariff schedule annex) during in 2026?: Canadian aircraft
KXTARIFFSECTOR-27JAN01-CAN
Will Trump issue any executive action on imposing tariffs specifically on wind turbines, where the executive action must explicitly reference wind turbines in its title, operative text, or fact sheet (not merely in an attached tariff schedule annex) during in 2026?: Wind turbines
KXTARIFFSECTOR-27JAN01-WIND
Will Trump issue any executive action on imposing tariffs specifically on critical minerals, where the executive action must explicitly reference critical minerals in its title, operative text, or fact sheet (not merely in an attached tariff schedule annex) during in 2026?: Critical minerals
KXTARIFFSECTOR-27JAN01-MINE
Will Trump issue any executive action on imposing tariffs specifically on foreign-made films, where the executive action must explicitly reference foreign-made films in its title, operative text, or fact sheet (not merely in an attached tariff schedule annex) during in 2026?: Foreign-made films
KXTARIFFSECTOR-27JAN01-FILM
Analysis
This market asks whether Trump will issue an executive action on Canadian aircraft tariffs with explicit mention in the title, operative text, or fact sheet by year-end 2026. The 50% probability reflects genuine uncertainty about whether such a narrowly-scoped action will occur. The current level is supported by Trump's documented interest in tariff policy generally—related markets show 81% probability of broader tariff actions in May 2026—but tempered by the specificity requirement. The timing matters because executive actions can be announced rapidly, but the Canadian aircraft constraint is restrictive; similar sector-specific measures may be bundled into broader trade actions instead. Key resolution drivers include Trump's stated trade priorities, ongoing U.S.-Canada trade dynamics, and whether tariff announcements use sufficiently explicit language about aircraft. The uncertainty remains substantial given the combination of Trump's tariff focus and the specific targeting requirement.
- ›A related May 2026 tariff action market shows 81% probability, indicating active tariff-policy consideration but not confirming Canadian aircraft specificity
- ›The constraint requiring explicit Canadian aircraft mention in title/text/fact sheet (not just annex schedules) is narrower than typical executive action language, raising the bar for resolution
- ›Trump administration tariff actions historically vary in specificity and targeting—some use broad sectoral language, others name specific countries or products, affecting likelihood of meeting the criteria
- ›No scheduled announcement or deadline before year-end 2026 is publicly identified, making timing unpredictable versus event-driven resolution
- ›Kalshi contracts aggregate 29% average probability across four linked outcomes, suggesting meaningful disagreement or view dispersion among traders on tariff specificity scenarios
Recently closed in recession
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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