Will Trump issue any executive action on imposing tariffs specifically on wind turbines, where the executive action must explicitly reference wind turbines in its title, operative text, or fact sheet (not merely in an attached tariff schedule annex) during in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 51% probability that Will Trump issue any executive action on imposing tariffs specifically on wind turbines, where the executive action m.... This contract trades at 51¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows minimal liquidity with only $1,662.63 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 49¢ price potentially unreliable for directional conviction.
Analysis
This market shows minimal liquidity with only $1,662.63 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 49¢ price potentially unreliable for directional conviction. The 152.6% implied yield on the Yes side is notably high relative to the 130% on No, suggesting the market may be underpricing the specificity requirement—Trump would need to explicitly mention wind turbines rather than simply including them in a broader tariff schedule, which is a meaningful constraint. The market has drifted down 3 cents over seven days and has 259 days to expiration, providing ample time for resolution but the illiquidity means any real trade could move the price substantially.
Resolution rules
If the President of the United States has taken any executive action in 2026 imposing tariffs specifically on wind turbines, where the executive action must explicitly reference wind turbines in its title, operative text, or fact sheet (not merely in an attached tariff schedule annex) and set an effective date, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTARIFFSECTOR-27JAN01-WIND yes 100