What is the current probability for "How many straight weeks will 'ICEMAN' be #1?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 20¢ (20% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 21, 2026. 236 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "How many straight weeks will 'ICEMAN' be #1?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 705.7% and 34.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "How many straight weeks will 'ICEMAN' be #1?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

How many straight weeks will 'ICEMAN' be #1?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 20% probability that How many straight weeks will 'ICEMAN' be #1?. This contract trades at 20¢ on Kalshi, closing December 21, 2026.

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20¢

Bid/Ask 18/23¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $150·OI $1,455.29·Closes Dec 21, 2026·236d remaining

KXTOPALBUMRECORD-ICE-DRA-4

7-day price31 snapshots · 5 regime

28¢18¢ current

Apr 2218¢Apr 29

Resolution rules

If ICEMAN by Drake has had the #1 spot on the Billboard 200 for more than 4 consecutive weeks, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 705.7%

IY (No) 34.0%

Adj IY 706%

CRI 5

RV 312%

VR 1.27

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	705.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	34.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	706%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	312%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.27	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	1.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

5¢

Computed

4/29/2026, 2:11:13 PM

Indicators computed 4/29/2026, 2:08:27 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXTOPALBUMRECORD-ICE-DRA-4 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

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