How many straight weeks will 'ICEMAN' be #1
Leader sits at 97% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 86%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
More than 1 week
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
86¢
More than 2 weeks
Spread
11pp
contested
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
Dec 21, 2026
181 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How many straight weeks will 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' be #1
How many straight weeks will 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' be #1?: More than 1 week
KXTOPALBUMRECORD-YOU-OLI-1
How many straight weeks will 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' be #1?: More than 2 weeks
KXTOPALBUMRECORD-YOU-OLI-2
How many straight weeks will 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' be #1?: More than 4 weeks
KXTOPALBUMRECORD-YOU-OLI-4
How many straight weeks will 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' be #1?: More than 3 weeks
KXTOPALBUMRECORD-YOU-OLI-3
Analysis
This market estimates an 83% probability that the song 'ICEMAN' will remain the #1 ranked track for a specific number of consecutive weeks. The current odds reflect expectations based on the track's recent chart performance and streaming momentum. The probability is driven primarily by how long 'ICEMAN' maintains its dominant chart position against competing releases and shifts in listener engagement. A key catalyst is the weekly chart update cycle, which determines whether 'ICEMAN' retains the top spot or loses ground to other songs. Market participants are essentially pricing in the likelihood that momentum persists through multiple consecutive weeks rather than being displaced quickly by newer releases or resurgent competitors.
- ›Current streaming volume and weekly listener engagement metrics compared to nearest competing tracks
- ›Release schedule and promotional intensity of competing songs expected during the timeframe in question
- ›Historical chart persistence patterns for similar-positioned songs in this artist's catalog and genre
- ›Weekly chart methodology and voting/streaming weighting that determines #1 rankings
- ›Performance trends over the past 2-4 weeks showing whether momentum is accelerating, stable, or declining
What moved the line
- Jun 18More than 3 weeks↑15pp34→49¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 16More than 4 weeks↑14pp15→29¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 17More than 3 weeks↓14pp48→34¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19More than 2 weeks↑13pp67→80¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 17More than 4 weeks↓9pp29→20¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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