What is the current probability for "Artist with the most monthly Spotify listeners at the end of Aug 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 6¢ (6% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on August 31, 2026. 124 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Artist with the most monthly Spotify listeners at the end of Aug 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 5612.4% and 15.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Artist with the most monthly Spotify listeners at the end of Aug 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Artist with the most monthly Spotify listeners at the end of Aug 2026?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Kalshi, closing August 31, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 1640% implied yield on the Yes side, yet Bad Bunny has maintained the top Spotify position for years and currently holds roughly 18 billion monthly listeners—far ahead of competitors like Taylor Swift and The Weeknd.

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6¢

Bid/Ask 5/10¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $1·OI $2,326.95·Closes Aug 31, 2026·124d remaining

KXTOPMONTHLY-26AUG-BAD

7-day price124 snapshots · 3 regime

27¢5¢ current

Apr 143¢Apr 30

Analysis

13d ago

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 1640% implied yield on the Yes side, yet Bad Bunny has maintained the top Spotify position for years and currently holds roughly 18 billion monthly listeners—far ahead of competitors like Taylor Swift and The Weeknd. The 6¢ spread and minimal $17 daily volume suggest severe illiquidity is driving the distorted pricing rather than genuine uncertainty, making this a potential arbitrage opportunity for informed traders willing to take a position in a thin market with 137 days to expiration.

Resolution rules

If the artist with the most monthly listeners on Spotify on Aug 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET is Bad Bunny, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 5612.4%

IY (No) 15.5%

Adj IY 2806%

CRI 19

Overround 0.4%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	5612.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	15.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2806%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

5¢

Computed

4/30/2026, 2:28:45 AM

Indicators computed 4/30/2026, 2:23:54 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXTOPMONTHLY-26AUG-BAD yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →