What is the current probability for "Artist with the most monthly Spotify listeners at the end of Aug 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 4¢ (4% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on August 31, 2026. 124 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Artist with the most monthly Spotify listeners at the end of Aug 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 7089.3% and 12.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Artist with the most monthly Spotify listeners at the end of Aug 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Artist with the most monthly Spotify listeners at the end of Aug 2026?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing August 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $2 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable despite the astronomical 6409% implied yield on a Yes resolution.

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4¢

Bid/Ask 0/1¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $0·OI $152.12·Closes Aug 31, 2026·124d remaining

KXTOPMONTHLY-26AUG-KEN

Analysis

13d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $2 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable despite the astronomical 6409% implied yield on a Yes resolution. The 9¢ spread is unusually wide relative to the contract value, and the cliff risk index of 24 suggests significant uncertainty around the specific resolution criteria or Kendrick Lamar's streaming dominance by August 2026. With 137 days to expiry, this appears to be a niche prediction with minimal market participation rather than a liquid pricing signal.

Resolution rules

If the artist with the most monthly listeners on Spotify on Aug 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET is Kendrick Lamar, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 7089.3%

IY (No) 12.3%

Adj IY 3545%

CRI 24

Overround 0.4%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	7089.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	12.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	3545%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/30/2026, 2:28:44 AM

Indicators computed 4/30/2026, 2:23:54 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXTOPMONTHLY-26AUG-KEN yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →