What is the current probability for "Artist with the most monthly Spotify listeners at the end of Aug 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 5¢ (5% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on August 31, 2026. 124 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Artist with the most monthly Spotify listeners at the end of Aug 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 5609.5% and 15.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Artist with the most monthly Spotify listeners at the end of Aug 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Artist with the most monthly Spotify listeners at the end of Aug 2026?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing August 31, 2026. This micro-liquidity market on The Weeknd's Spotify dominance shows extreme pricing distortion with a 25¢ spread and only $36 open interest across 137 days.

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5¢

Bid/Ask 5/11¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $10.4·OI $468.4·Closes Aug 31, 2026·124d remaining

KXTOPMONTHLY-26AUG-WEE

7-day price22 snapshots · 7 regime

26¢5¢ current

Apr 143¢Apr 25

Analysis

12d ago

This micro-liquidity market on The Weeknd's Spotify dominance shows extreme pricing distortion with a 25¢ spread and only $36 open interest across 137 days. The 3¢ price implies just a 3% probability despite The Weeknd currently holding the top position, suggesting either severe underpricing or market participants heavily discounting his ability to maintain the crown through August 2026. The 2405% implied yield on Yes contracts and recent 36% price decline (14¢ to 9¢ over 7 days) indicates thin order books are driving volatility rather than fundamental conviction about artist streaming dynamics.

Resolution rules

If the artist with the most monthly listeners on Spotify on Aug 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET is The Weeknd, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 5609.5%

IY (No) 15.5%

Adj IY 2805%

CRI 19

Overround 0.4%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	5609.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	15.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2805%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

6¢

Computed

4/30/2026, 12:54:27 AM

Indicators computed 4/30/2026, 12:53:56 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXTOPMONTHLY-26AUG-WEE yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →