Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will SWIM be the #1 most streamed Song on the  2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 19¢ (19% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 31, 2026. 253 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will SWIM be the #1 most streamed Song on the  2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1456.9% and 14.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will SWIM be the #1 most streamed Song on the  2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1456.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	14.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	728%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	10	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Will SWIM be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?

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