Will DtMF be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
33%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$231
3 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
102 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
will babydoll be the #1 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 2
will end of beginning be the #1 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 3
will dtmf be the #1 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Analysis
This probability estimates the likelihood that 'DtMF' will be Spotify's most-streamed song globally when 2026 Wrapped is released, expected in late November or early December 2026. The 32% probability reflects competitive dynamics among multiple songs with different momentum profiles. 'End of Beginning' currently shows stronger market confidence at 67%, while 'Babydoll' sits at 27%, suggesting traders view the outcome as genuinely uncertain. The final ranking will depend on cumulative streaming volume through December 2026, making release timing, chart performance trends, and listener engagement over the next three months critical determinants. Spotify historically releases Wrapped in early December, which will definitively resolve the question by revealing verified global streaming statistics.
- ›DtMF's current streaming trajectory and monthly listener growth rate relative to competing songs as of September 2026
- ›Total accumulated streams for all three songs by the Wrapped release date, since final rankings are based on year-to-date global play counts
- ›Major promotional events or releases by the artists behind each song between September and November 2026 that could shift listener behavior
- ›Seasonal listening patterns and whether holiday playlists or end-of-year trends favor any particular track's genre or style
- ›Spotify Wrapped release date confirmation in November or December 2026, which will provide the definitive ranked list and resolve all related contracts
What moved the line
- Sep 19End of Beginning↑35pp45→80¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18End of Beginning↓26pp71→45¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Babydoll↑13pp1→14¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Babydoll↓5pp6→1¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17End of Beginning↓3pp74→71¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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