Will DtMF be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This contract asks whether DtMF will be the #1 most-streamed song globally according to Spotify's year-end 2026 Wrapped chart, currently priced at 20% probability. The relatively modest probability reflects that achieving the #1 position globally requires sustained streaming dominance across all regions throughout 2026, a high bar given music's fragmented listening patterns and the emergence of new releases during the year. The current 20% estimate appears influenced by competing strong candidates—Babydoll is priced at 37% for the same outcome, suggesting market participants view it as the stronger contender. The market will fully resolve in late November or early December 2026 when Spotify publicly releases its annual Wrapped charts, providing definitive streaming tallies. Until then, DtMF's trajectory depends on maintaining momentum through the second half of 2026 against both established competition and new releases yet to come.

• ›DtMF's streaming volume and growth trajectory through mid-to-late 2026 compared to competing songs like Babydoll and End of Beginning
• ›Geographic distribution of DtMF's streams—global #1 requires strong performance across multiple regions, not just USA dominance
• ›Release timing and promotional activity around competing tracks in the second half of 2026 that could capture listener attention
• ›Spotify's final streaming count methodology and exact Wrapped release date, which determines the precise measurement window for the 2026 rankings

What moved the line

• Jul 17SWIM↑18pp26→44¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 21SWIM↓18pp31→13¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 19SWIM↓15pp49→34¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 17Beauty and a Beat↓13pp23→10¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 21End of Beginning↑7pp11→18¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds