Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 47% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 47% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing January 7, 2027. This market is pricing in an extremely low probability (11%) for Trump's approval rating exceeding 47% over a full year, despite his current approval hovering near or above that threshold, suggesting either significant bearish sentiment on his trajectory or potential mispricing given the extended 266-day timeframe.
Analysis
This market is pricing in an extremely low probability (11%) for Trump's approval rating exceeding 47% over a full year, despite his current approval hovering near or above that threshold, suggesting either significant bearish sentiment on his trajectory or potential mispricing given the extended 266-day timeframe. The astronomical 1826% implied yield on the Yes side combined with near-zero 24-hour volume and modest $9,707 open interest indicates severe illiquidity and likely wide bid-ask spreads that make the 11¢ price unreliable as a true probability estimate. The flat 7-day price action and neutral regime score suggest the market has stalled without conviction, making this a potentially exploitable mispricing if one believes Trump's approval will remain above 47% during the resolution window.
Also on polymarket at 50¢(Δ -39¢)
Resolution rules
If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is above 47%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTRUMPAPPROVALYEAR-26DEC31-47 yes 100