Will Trump's approval rating hit 47% in 2026?

This market is severely illiquid with zero 24-hour volume despite $2.4M open interest, suggesting the 5¢ price may not reflect true consensus given the extreme 2,689% implied yield on "Yes" and 7¢ bid-ask spread. The 258-day timeframe to resolution and neutral regime score provide adequate time for Trump's approval to potentially reach 47%, making the 5% probability appear potentially mispriced relative to historical approval rating volatility (2,005% realized vol). The high cliff risk index (19) and notable 7-day price decline from 6¢ to 5¢ warrant caution, as thin liquidity could amplify moves if new polling data emerges.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.

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