Will Trump's approval rating hit 48% in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 50% probability that Will Trump's approval rating hit 48% in 2026?. This contract trades at 50¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.
Also on kalshi at 6¢(Δ +44¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
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sf trade 0xb21c480a978a1ad358430a026aa4a7208999550eb1cdcc48a8c6698f9ad4f522 yes 100