Will David Sacks attend Trump's crypto & business conference (originally scheduled for Apr 25, 2026)?

Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will David Sacks attend Trump's crypto & business conference (originally scheduled for Apr 25, 2026)?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing April 26, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,424 open interest, making the 15¢ price potentially unreliable despite the tight 5¢ spread.

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12¢
Bid/Ask 8/13¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $234.67·OI $1,556.23·Closes Apr 26, 2026·5d remaining
KXTRUMPCRYPTOCONF-26-DSAC
7-day price19 snapshots · 4 regime
16¢8¢ current
Apr 86¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,424 open interest, making the 15¢ price potentially unreliable despite the tight 5¢ spread. The astronomical 34,226% implied yield on the Yes side signals severe mispricing likely driven by the minimal liquidity, while the sharp 7-day decline from 16¢ to 10¢ suggests deteriorating conviction in Sacks's attendance as the April 25 conference date approaches. With just 10 days to expiry and a high cliff risk index of 9, this market is too illiquid to trade meaningfully and resolution hinges on real-time event confirmation rather than market-driven probability discovery.

Resolution rules

If David Sacks attends Trump's crypto & business conference (originally scheduled for Apr 25, 2026), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 89460.8%
IY (No) 676.5%
Adj IY 16774%
CRI 12
Overround 2.4%
LAS 0.63
▶ Full indicator table (6)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)89460.8%
IY (No)676.5%
Adj IY16774%
CRI12
Overround2.4%
LAS0.63

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
5¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 9:29:04 PM
Observability mediumEvent type political
Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXTRUMPCRYPTOCONF-26-DSAC yes 100

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