Will Tesla Inc. report above 440000 total production in Q2 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 47% probability that Will Tesla Inc. report above 440000 total production in Q2 2026?. This contract trades at 47¢ on Kalshi, closing August 21, 2026. The 35¢ price implies Tesla will produce above 440,000 units in Q2 2026 with only 35% probability, despite the company averaging over 430,000 quarterly units recently—suggesting the market is pricing in meaningful production headwinds or conservative assumptions about growth.
Analysis
The 35¢ price implies Tesla will produce above 440,000 units in Q2 2026 with only 35% probability, despite the company averaging over 430,000 quarterly units recently—suggesting the market is pricing in meaningful production headwinds or conservative assumptions about growth. The extremely high implied yield of 512% on the Yes side combined with realized volatility of 1,243% indicates extreme uncertainty and potential mispricing, though the thin $4.3k open interest and recent sharp 31¢ price jump (from 5¢ to 36¢ over seven days) raise questions about liquidity depth and whether this move reflects genuine information or low-volume volatility. With 127 days to resolution and a neutral regime, traders should monitor Tesla's Q1 2026 production guidance and any supply chain announcements closely, as the cliff risk index of 2 suggests binary outcome potential.
Resolution rules
If Tesla Inc. reports above 440000 total production in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTSLA-26JULPROD-440000.0 yes 100