Will CAVA Group Inc. report Above 455 cava restaurants in Q1 2026
Leader sits at 92% across 13 bound outcomes, runner-up at 89%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 470
Outcomes
13
winner-take-all
Runner-up
89¢
Above 3%
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
Sep 10, 2026
79 days
Venue
Kalshi
13 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will CAVA Group Inc. report Above
Will CAVA Group Inc. report Above 480 cava restaurants in Q2 2026?: Above 480
KXCAVA-26AUGREST-480
Will CAVA Group Inc. report Above 475 cava restaurants in Q2 2026?: Above 475
KXCAVA-26AUGREST-475
Will CAVA Group Inc. report Above 9% same restaurant sales growth in Q2 2026?: Above 9%
KXCAVA-26AUGCOMP-9.0
Will CAVA Group Inc. report Above 10.5% same restaurant sales growth in Q2 2026?: Above 10.5%
KXCAVA-26AUGCOMP-10.5
Will CAVA Group Inc. report Above 7.5% same restaurant sales growth in Q2 2026?: Above 7.5%
KXCAVA-26AUGCOMP-7.5
Will CAVA Group Inc. report Above 6% same restaurant sales growth in Q2 2026?: Above 6%
KXCAVA-26AUGCOMP-6.0
Will CAVA Group Inc. report Above 4.5% same restaurant sales growth in Q2 2026?: Above 4.5%
KXCAVA-26AUGCOMP-4.5
Will CAVA Group Inc. report Above 3% same restaurant sales growth in Q2 2026?: Above 3%
KXCAVA-26AUGCOMP-3.0
Will CAVA Group Inc. report Above 490 cava restaurants in Q2 2026?: Above 490
KXCAVA-26AUGREST-490
Will CAVA Group Inc. report above 479 cava restaurants in Q2 2026?: Above 479
KXCAVA-26AUGREST-479
Will CAVA Group Inc. report above 478 cava restaurants in Q2 2026?: Above 478
KXCAVA-26AUGREST-478
Will CAVA Group Inc. report above 476 cava restaurants in Q2 2026?: Above 476
KXCAVA-26AUGREST-476
Will CAVA Group Inc. report Above 470 cava restaurants in Q2 2026?: Above 470
KXCAVA-26AUGREST-470
Analysis
This contract resolves based on whether CAVA Group Inc. will operate more than 455 restaurant locations when reporting Q1 2026 financial results, currently priced at 63% probability. CAVA has maintained steady expansion as a fast-casual Mediterranean restaurant chain. The outcome depends primarily on the company's actual unit growth rate over the preceding quarters and any changes to expansion plans or closures. Q1 2026 earnings report, expected in late April or early May 2026, will provide the definitive restaurant count and resolve this contract. Historical growth trends, publicly announced expansion targets, and actual new openings versus planned openings will determine if the threshold is exceeded or missed.
- ›CAVA's historical quarterly unit growth rate and whether recent pace has accelerated, decelerated, or remained consistent
- ›Any public announcements from CAVA management regarding expansion plans, guidance revisions, or store closure decisions in 2025-2026
- ›Restaurant count as of Q4 2025 earnings report relative to the 455-unit threshold and runway needed
- ›Capital allocation priorities and available financing for expansion during the relevant period
- ›Comparable restaurant chain expansion rates and broader QSR market conditions affecting new unit economics
What moved the line
- Jun 18Above 479↑47pp14→61¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Above 479↓31pp61→30¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Above 478↓24pp51→27¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Above 478↑21pp30→51¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Above 470↑20pp74→94¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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