Will Chelsey Hockett be the Democratic nominee for TX-05?
Prediction markets currently give a 84% probability that Will Chelsey Hockett be the Democratic nominee for TX-05?. This contract trades at 84¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme asymmetry with the Yes side priced at a steep 84¢ while the No side offers a 229.7% implied yield, suggesting significant skepticism about Hockett's nomination prospects despite the high nominal probability.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with the Yes side priced at a steep 84¢ while the No side offers a 229.7% implied yield, suggesting significant skepticism about Hockett's nomination prospects despite the high nominal probability. The extremely thin liquidity ($1,168 open interest, $1 daily volume) and wide 7¢ spread indicate this is a low-conviction, illiquid position that could experience sharp repricing on modest trading activity. With over 560 days to expiration and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 4, the market has ample time for the political landscape to shift, though the recent 4¢ price decline over seven days hints at gradual erosion in Hockett's perceived chances.
Resolution rules
If Chelsey Hockett wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 TX-05 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTXPRIMARY-05D26-CHOC yes 100