Will Richard Davis be the Democratic nominee for TX-14
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 6% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
6%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
509 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Richard Davis be the Democratic nominee for TX-14
Will Richard Davis be the Democratic nominee for TX-14?: Richard Davis
KXTXPRIMARY-14D26-RDAV
Analysis
This represents the implied probability that Richard Davis will secure the Democratic nomination for Texas's 14th congressional district. At 41%, the market suggests roughly even odds, reflecting uncertainty about the primary's outcome. The probability is likely driven by Davis's existing profile and campaign infrastructure relative to potential challengers, as well as district demographics and recent electoral trends. The nomination will be determined by primary results, expected to occur during Texas's primary election cycle. Key factors that could move this probability include changes in candidate fundraising, endorsements from party figures, polling shifts, and challenger entry or exit from the race. Local turnout patterns and any shifts in district composition would also influence the final outcome.
- ›Primary election results and timing will directly determine the nomination, with participation rates and vote distribution among competing candidates being measurable factors
- ›Candidate fundraising totals and cash-on-hand relative to primary opponents indicate organizational capacity and will be publicly disclosed
- ›Endorsements from established Democratic figures, local elected officials, and organizations in TX-14 demonstrably affect primary electability
- ›Recent polling data comparing Davis to other potential Democratic primary candidates would show relative standing among likely voters
- ›Registered Democrat growth or demographic shifts within TX-14 between now and the primary could alter the electorate composition and candidate viability
What moved the line
- Jun 10Richard Davis↑5pp1→6¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (6% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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