How high will unemployment get before 2030?

This market is pricing in a 96% probability that U.S. unemployment will exceed 5% at some point between June 2025 and January 2030, yet it shows virtually no trading activity with $0 in 24-hour volume and only $228 open interest. The extreme asymmetry in implied yields—4.4% for Yes versus 165% for No—combined with a 12¢ spread and recent price decline from 93¢ to 86¢ over seven days, suggests either thin liquidity masking true market sentiment or potential mispricing, particularly given that unemployment has historically breached 5% multiple times in recent decades.

Resolution rules

If the U-3 unemployment rate from June 2025 to January 2030 is above 5%, the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade