How high will unemployment get before 2030?

This market is pricing in a 74% probability of U.S. unemployment exceeding 7% over the next five years, but the $0 in 24-hour volume and minimal $149 open interest suggest extremely thin liquidity that could make execution difficult. The 54.5% implied yield on the "No" side is notably attractive relative to the 13.2% "Yes" yield, indicating the market may be overpricing recession risk or undervaluing the baseline scenario of stable labor markets. With over three years until expiration and only a 2 cliff risk index, this appears to be a relatively stable long-duration bet rather than a near-term catalyst play.

Resolution rules

If, from June 2025 to January 2030 the U-3 unemployment rate is above 7%, the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade