What is the current probability for "Who will be the Bantamweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 3¢ (3% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 31, 2026. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Who will be the Bantamweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 4652.4% and 4.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Who will be the Bantamweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Who will be the Bantamweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Who will be the Bantamweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1,517 in open interest, and the 3¢ price implies only a 3% probability that Cory Sandhagen holds the bantamweight title in 259 days.

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3¢

Bid/Ask 0/3¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $0·OI $1,517·Closes Dec 31, 2026·254d remaining

KXUFCBANTAMWEIGHTTITLE-26-CSAN

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1,517 in open interest, and the 3¢ price implies only a 3% probability that Cory Sandhagen holds the bantamweight title in 259 days. The implied yield of 4563% on the Yes side is artificially inflated due to the minimal price and low liquidity, making this contract highly speculative with a Cliff Risk Index of 32 indicating meaningful event concentration risk. The flat 7-day price action and wide 3¢ spread suggest minimal market activity and potential difficulty executing trades at posted prices.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at —¢

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.94Close-time delta 17h

Resolution rules

If Cory Sandhagen is the UFC Bantamweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 4652.4%

IY (No) 4.5%

Adj IY 2326%

CRI 32

Overround -0.3%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	4652.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	4.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2326%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	32	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 1:03:42 AM

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 12:53:18 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXUFCBANTAMWEIGHTTITLE-26-CSAN yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →